Policy

Macroeconomist and policy advisor

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Policy

Policy writing

Accessible analysis of inflation, fiscal and monetary policy, government debt, financial markets and payment systems.

On the Economy Blog

Jul. 15, 2026

Between Headline and Core: Inflation Excluding Energy Goods

Mar. 3, 2026

The Dual Mandate in Conflict: Balancing Current Tensions between Inflation and Employment

Oct. 17, 2025

Is the U.S. in an Above-Target Inflation Regime?

Mar. 6, 2025

The Fiscal Origin of the COVID-19 Price Surge

Feb. 25, 2025

The Road to 2% Inflation: Are We There Yet?

Oct. 19, 2023

Is Inflation on the Way Out or Here to Stay?

May 9, 2023

Where Might Inflation Head?

May 8, 2023

Understanding the Recent Behavior of Inflation

Oct. 17, 2022

Inflation Is Still High and Widespread

Apr. 12, 2022

2021: The Year of High Inflation

Oct. 19, 2021

How Widespread Are Price Increases in the U.S.?

Oct. 7, 2021

What Are the Risks for Future Inflation?

Apr. 5, 2021

Is Inflation Making a Comeback?

Dec. 1, 2020

Financing the U.S. Response to COVID-19

Jun. 16, 2020

The Impact of the Fed’s Response to COVID-19 So Far

Nov. 14, 2019

Monetary Policy’s Potential Effects on the Deficit, Debt and Fiscal Policy

May 7, 2019

Foreign Demand for Currency and the Fed’s Balance Sheet

Dec. 10, 2018

Safe Assets in the U.S. Economy

Oct. 15, 2018

Fed Policies’ Continued Effects on Short-Term Liquidity Markets

Aug. 6, 2018

GDP, Labor Force Participation and Economic Growth

Jan. 4, 2018

How Fiscal Realities Intersect with Monetary Policy

Oct. 9, 2017

How Might Increases in the Fed Funds Rate Impact Other Interest Rates?

Mar. 30, 2017

Where Is the Federal Budget Going?

Feb. 9, 2017

Why Does Economic Growth Keep Slowing Down?

Dec. 5, 2016

Durable Goods Prove a Drag on Inflation

May 11, 2015

Who Holds the U.S. Public Debt?

Jun. 23, 2014

Three Economic Indicators That May Regain Focus in Policy Debate and Outlook

May 5, 2014

Why Inflation Matters in Setting Monetary Policy

The FRED Blog

Sep. 21, 2020

The Fed’s balance sheet

Dec. 9, 2019

A lesson in measuring the federal debt

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Annual Reports

2023

Prices, Wages and Workers: The Recent U.S. Inflation Experience, with David Wheelock.

2021

The Blockchain Revolution: Decoding Digital Currencies, with David Andolfatto.

2020

State and Local Governments Harness Federal Funding, with Bill Dupor.

2011

Sovereign Debt: A Modern Greek Tragedy, with Christopher J. Waller. Spanish version.

Regional Economist

Aug. 10, 2020

The U.S. Financial Landscape on the Eve of the Pandemic

Aug. 18, 2017

Making Ends Meet on the Federal Budget: Outlook and Challenges

Jul. 25, 2017

A Short History of Prices, Inflation since the Founding of the U.S.

Jan. 29, 2016

Where Did All the New Liquidity Go?

Jul. 1, 2014

The Federal Budget: How the U.S. Got Here and Where It Is Headed

Apr. 1, 2013

A View from the Fiscal Cliff

Economic Synopses

Mar. 30, 2020

Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Part II: The Economy and Fiscal Policy

Mar. 30, 2020

Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Part I: Financial Markets and Monetary Policy

Dec. 16, 2016

A Perspective on Nominal Interest Rates

Nov. 4, 2016

A Closer Look at Federal Income Taxes

May 20, 2016

U.S. Fiscal Policy: Reality and Outlook

Mar. 4, 2016

Revisiting GDP Growth Projections

Jan. 8, 2016

Private Investment and the Great Recession

Dec. 19, 2014

Monetary Policy and the Output Gap

Nov. 24, 2014

Projecting GDP Growth Using Trends in Labor Force Participation

Mar. 21, 2014

Labor Market Update

Dec. 6, 2013

U.S. Inflation and Its Components

Apr. 26, 2013

Winners and Losers in the Great Recession

Mar. 29, 2013

Lessons from the Recent Recession: The Faster They Grow, the Harder They Fall

Dec. 14, 2012

The Fiscal Cliff in Context

Jan. 6, 2012

Fiscal Policy in the Great Recession and Lessons from the Past